Assignment First


本文選擇的文章是Keen(2009)發表在《澳大利亞經濟評論》42(3)上的《家庭債務:人為擴大的龐氏泡沫的最後階段》(Household Debt: The Final Stage in an artificial Extended Ponzi Bubble)。本文考慮了不同宏觀經濟和其他經濟方面的私人債務。

正如文章所指出的,傳統的宏觀經濟學大多忽略了私人債務,這實際上是一個主要問題,拒絕接受在涉及到金錢時所持的標準態度。私人債務對經濟的影響受到與GDP價值相關的規模、主要目的、其組成和變化發生的速度的影響(Keen, 2009)。從幾個方面考慮,當前的債務危機與導致大蕭條的危機相比,可謂是極端嚴重。作為經濟、金融和公共管理常務委員會(2007),粗略的數據被引用了很多次,描述了幾乎一半的利率。這是以完全相同的方式發生的,並對資產價值產生了重大影響。如果在1987年沒有采取幹預措施,將其從過高的價值中拯救出來,那麽輕度抑郁癥可能已經接近那個時候的水平。債務水平可以與1929年的水平相比較(Keen, 2009)。由債務融資的需求在總需求中所占的份額要小得多,因此,從一個比目前低得多的基礎開始,就會出現去杠桿化。本文還指出,自1990年以來,在資產價格上投機龐氏騙局是增加家庭債務的一個壓倒一切的目的。



The article selected for this assignment is “Household Debt: The Final Stage in an Artificially Extended Ponzi Bubble” by Keen (2009), published in The Australian Economic Review 42(3). The article has considered different macro- economic and other economic aspects of private debt.

As identified in the article, conventional macroeconomics has mostly ignored private debt, which is in fact a major issue rejecting the standard attitude to be perceived when money is involved. The influence of private debt on the economy is influenced by the scale related to the value of GDP, the key purpose, its composition and the rate at which the change takes place (Keen, 2009). When considering this from several dimensions, the current crisis of debt can be seen as extremely severe in comparison with the ones that resulted in the Great Depression. Cited as Standing Committee on Economics, Finance, and Public Administration (2007), rough statistics have been quoted many times to depict almost half of the rate of the interest. This took place in the exact same way and had a major impact on the values of asset. If there had been no intervention for rescuing from the excess value in the year 1987, mild depression might have approached back then. Levels of debt can be compared to the ones from the year 1929 (Keen, 2009). Demand financed by debt was a considerably smaller share of aggregate share of demand, such that there would have been the occurrence of deleveraging from a considerably low base than the present ones. This article also states that speculating Ponzi on the prices of asset was an overwhelming purpose to grow in debt of household since the year 1990.

As for the key learning from this article, I can now conclude that a considerably high level of debt may be in accumulation with the lending of Ponzi, rather than in its absence. Also, this level of debt finally ends up causing not only a cyclical downturn, but instead can be considered as a complete collapse of economy. Even though such a model needs to be in alignment with the actual data, the qualitative behaviour ends up coming in alignment with the pattern, which results in the global crisis of finance. Under these claims, I am forced to anticipate that a crisis of finance could be by practicing the lending of security, with a substantial share of assets that can be considered as eligible. Hence, it can be stated that when there is trade of securities, then the price of trade ends up collapsing, and potentially, there is a bankruptcy of a number of investors.